Growing scepticism is mounting over the Ghana Revenue Authority’s (GRA) claims that its newly deployed Publican artificial intelligence (AI) customs system drove a near-50 percent surge in customs revenue within just two weeks of going live, with a data and policy analyst warning that the figures require independent verification before they can be treated as proof of success.

Alfred Appiah, a data and policy analyst, says the headline revenue numbers raise more questions than they answer, pointing to methodological gaps that make it premature to attribute the reported gains solely to the new system.

The GRA deployed Publican as a complementary tool to the Integrated Customs Management System (ICUMS), which remains the primary clearance platform. An internal comparison of customs revenue for the three weeks before and after Publican’s introduction showed average weekly revenue rising from GH¢2.4 billion to GH¢3.6 billion, an increase of GH¢1.2 billion, according to GRA Commissioner-General Anthony Kwasi Sarpong.

Appiah, however, urges caution. He argues that customs revenue does not move in a straight line and can fluctuate based on shipment volumes, import cycles, and seasonal trade patterns. A spike over a two-week window, he contends, may reflect temporary factors unrelated to the AI system, and without understanding the baseline and seasonal trends, isolating the system’s contribution is not possible.

The concerns are compounded by separate industry allegations of overcharging at the ports. Some importers have reported duty assessments rising sharply, with figures in some cases climbing from around GH¢900,000 to over GH¢2.1 million. Appiah notes that if importers are being assessed higher duties than their goods warrant, revenue may rise in the short term while eroding compliance and trust over time. He says an independent audit of the system’s valuation assessments is essential to determine whether the gains reflect genuine efficiency improvements or inflated charges.

Questions have also surfaced about the corporate structure behind the system. The technical deployment of the Publican AI system is being managed in partnership with Truedare Investment Limited, a contractual arrangement that has drawn demands from trade groups and former lawmakers for full disclosure of the contract details, amid concerns over hidden risks and potential financial implications for the state. Appiah notes that Publican is reportedly developed by a startup known as Ultra Information Solutions, raising questions about the role of intermediaries and the value they bring to the deal.

A deeper structural question also remains unresolved: whether Publican is necessary at all, given that Ghana already operates the Integrated Customs Management System, which was designed to handle customs valuation, risk management, and revenue assurance. Appiah and other critics question whether AI enhancements could have been integrated into the existing system rather than layering in a separate platform.

The GRA has since requested nominations from stakeholders to form a multi-party technical committee, following a meeting at the Ministry of Finance on April 1, 2026, that agreed a consultative platform was needed to deepen engagement. Whether that process will produce the kind of independent technical audit analysts are calling for remains to be seen.